Market Overview & Growth Dynamics of India’s used commercial vehicles (CVs)market
Market size & growth trajectory
• The India used truck market was about USD 2.08 billion in 2024 and is projected to USD 3.15 billion by 2033 (≈4.3% CAGR). North India currently leads with >35% share.
• Underneath that, the broader logistics engines are expanding: India’s logistics market was USD 228.4 billion in 2024 and could hit USD 428.7 billion by 2033 (≈6.5% CAGR).
• Road freight specifically is scaling: valued at ₹12.13 trillion in 2023, expected to ₹18.89 trillion by 2029 (≈9.4% CAGR). That keeps demand for CV capacity—including used trucks—
resilient.
What’s driving demand for used CVs
• Infra build-out & connectivity
• Record NHAI capex (provisional) of ₹2.5 lakh crore in FY25 and 5,614 km of national highways constructed, beating target. This materially lifts freight velocity and truck utilization—great for used assets.
• Budgeted outlay for the highways ministry remains elevated (₹2.72 lakh crore in FY25), sustaining multi-year corridor execution.
• E-commerce & B2C/B2B logistics
• India’s e-retail GMV is projected to triple to $170–$190 billion by 2030, keeping last-mile/LH demand tight for LCVs/SCVs and regional hauls—fertile ground for used inventory.
• Replacement cycle tailwinds
• India’s M&HCV fleet age ~10 years (a 10-year high)—this pushes replacement, and the outgoing vehicles feed the used market’s supply (while newer used units find buyers quickly).
• Finance availability for used assets
• NBFCs are leaning into used assets: ICRA expects the used-asset share of NBFC vehicle books to expand, with used-asset growth outpacing new in FY24–FY25; overall NBFC credit pools are also larger, improving access.
Supply-side structure & formalization
• Organized auctions/marketplaces (e.g., SAMIL) are deepening the pool and standardizing inspections/documentation—SAMIL alone has transacted 50,000+ used CVs since
Jan 2023, indicating scale and liquidity.
Policy & regulatory cross-winds (why they matter)
• Massive infra spend is a structural positive; the centre kept record infra capex of ₹11.11 lakh crore for FY25 (3.4% of GDP), extending demand visibility for freight (and trucks).
• Logistics cost reduction push—policy target to bring costs below 10% of GDP—implies continued upgrades to roads/tolling/warehousing and faster turns for trucks.
• Scrappage/Fitness regime: HCVs require fitness testing (from Apr 1, 2023; other categories from Jun 1, 2024). Over time this weeds out poor-condition vehicles, nudging demand toward better-maintained used units.
• NCR diesel-age rules in flux: the
Supreme Court has paused coercive action on the 10-year diesel/15-year petrol ban (Aug 2025) pending review. Short-term, that injects uncertainty into cross-border relocation/scrappage flows; medium-term, a clearer regime will reset values.
Cyclicality check (near-term reality)
• FY25 was largely flat for CV wholesales; agencies see only 3–5% growth in FY26—a modest upcycle vs. the previous high base/election lull. Used pricing should remain rational, with stronger absorption in LCV/SCV and selective firmness in newer M&HCV vintages.
Where the upside lies (and what to watch)
Positives
• Healthy demand engine from infra, road freight growth, and e-retail scale-up.
• Faster formalization—organized channels + digital finance + inspections = rising buyer confidence and better residual-value discovery.
• Policy momentum to lower logistics costs should keep truck utilization improving (even modest utilization gains lift owner ROI for used trucks).
Risks / Watch-outs
• Regulatory overhangs (NCR age norms review; fitness/fees in some states) can cause abrupt value swings for older diesel inventories; operators should price in regulatory risk by region.
• Credit cycle & NBFC spreads: while access to credit is improving, CRISIL/
ICRA note moderation in vehicle-finance AUM growth; a sharp tightening would crimp demand at the bottom of the pyramid.
• Technology shift: cleaner powertrains and OEM incentives could compress residual values of older, less-efficient diesel models over the medium term (an opportunity for buyers, a risk for holders of very old stock).
What this means for you (operator / platform POV)
• Lean into younger used vintages (BS-VI / late BS-IV): best liquidity + easier fitness + financing approval.
• Play the corridors: where capex is landing (corridors/expressways) you’ll see higher utilization and better yields on used trucks.
• Finance + telematics = higher ROI: pair
NBFC used-asset loans with GPS/fuel controls to protect residuals and operating margins.
• Policy hedge: avoid over-concentration in geographies with volatile age restrictions(e.g., NCR), or price the risk in.
