India’s truck market in 2025: steady and sensible
2025 isn’t a drag race for trucks—it’s more like a smooth, steady cruise.
- Retail sales (what gets registered at RTOs):
In August, India sold about 75,600 commercial vehicles, up ~8.6% from last year.
Breakdown: LCV ~46.2k, MCV ~7.0k, HCV ~22.4k.
Translation: last-mile and regional work is buzzing, and heavy trucks are moving up slowly—not fireworks, but definitely not stalling. - Factory dispatches (wholesales):
Apr–Jun (Q1 FY26) was around 2.23 lakh CVs, basically flat vs last year. July showed ~6% YoY wholesale growth, even if month-on-month cooled a bit. Overall vibe: stable base with a bit more energy in July–August. (SIAM)
What’s happening inside the segments
- SCV/LCV (small & light): the dependable workhorses for city logistics, e-commerce hops, and short regional runs.
- ILCV/IMCV (intermediate): benefit from hub-and-spoke networks and faster turnarounds.
- M&HCV (heavy): a careful comeback, mostly replacement-driven—older trucks going out, new ones coming in where contracts make sense.
OEM numbers say the same thing:
Tata Motors saw HCV +4% YoY and a stronger ILMCV +17% YoY in July.
Ashok Leyland reported about 4% YoY growth in M&HCV trucks in the same month.
Not a surge—more like firm ground forming.
Fuel choices: slow shift, diesel still king
In August ’25 retail CVs, the mix looked roughly like this: Diesel ~81%, CNG/LPG ~12.5%, Petrol/Ethanol ~4%, EV ~2%.
Practical take:
- Diesel: best for torque, range, and intercity work.
- CNG: great for mostly-urban duty if pumps are available.
- EV: use for set city routes where charging and payload work out. (FADA)
Policy nudge to watch
From 1 October 2025, AC cabins are mandatory for new N2/N3 trucks (medium & heavy). Good for drivers, adds a bit to cost. Expect a bit of pre-buy before the deadline and slightly better resale for newer trucks later. Nothing disruptive—just another line in the buyer’s math. (PIB)
Outlook: modest growth, disciplined buying
Most agencies expect FY26 to grow ~3–5% for CVs after a mild dip last year. The push comes from ongoing infrastructure work and selective, sensible capex. Freight demand is there; fleets are just being disciplined. (ICRA, CRISIL)
Channel mood: cautious now, festive later
Dealers are keeping inventories tight. Many buyers wait for festive offers, and this year GST changes also made some push purchases to late September. So a few months may look flatter than they feel—release comes near festivals. (Economic Times)
Bottom line for 2025
It’s a pragmatic operator’s year:
- SCV/LCV keep last-mile and regional networks humming.
- ILCV/IMCV are the sweet spot for hub-to-city runs.
- M&HCV are grinding out a replacement-led recovery.
- Fuel math: diesel rules long routes, CNG saves money in cities, EVs nibble at niches.
- Market shares look familiar on the road: Tata on top, Mahindra strong in light trucks, Ashok Leyland and VECV steady in heavier bands—just what August retail shares showed.
Expect a festive-season bump, some pre-buy before the AC rule, and otherwise a “keep calm and carry freight” finish to the year.
